Race to the Top Analysis: Spreading The Wealth

EPILOGUE (8/24/2010): Well, my predictions below didn't quite pan out. FL and RI came in strong, but IL and SC flopped (but by mere points, of course). I was almost right that with two large states funded -- Florida and New York -- it would limit the number of winners. But the predicted nine became ten with the surprise inclusion of Hawaii (75 mil) among the winners, along with DC (also only 75 mil). For more on the winners, see here.

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Education Week (and its Politics K-12 blog), the Hechinger Report, the New America Foundation's Ed Money Watch, and the Massachusetts Business Alliance for Education have provided some excellent Race to the Top Phase 2 analysis.

Based on Phase 1 scores, reviews of Phase 2 applications, and other considerations, I believe Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island and South Carolina are locks for Phase 2 funding. [UPDATE (8/4/2010): One thing that should be concerning to Georgia is an extremely low level of district buy-in (14%) to its application. The only two other states below 50% buy-in are California (18%) -- by design -- and Pennsylvania (32%). As a result I've moved Georgia from a 'lock' to a 'strong' contender.]

Further, I think that Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania have strong chances at winning Phase 2 funding. (That would place the remaining finalists -- Arizona, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii and New Jersey -- outside the winners' circle.) That said, which and how many states will eventually be funded from the remaining pot of $3.4 billion is largely contingent upon the successes of the Big Three, each eligible to win $700 million: Florida, New York and California. The presence of numerous $400 million eligible states in the mix also has the potential to limit the number of winners.

Let's look at a variety of scenarios, assuming in each case that Florida can bank on the $700 million. Of the three, I think New York has the next best shot at the dollars, with California's chances slightly less. In each case, I have listed the states in Phase One rank order (so feel free to replace any with your preference).

Scenario #1 (Florida only)
TOTAL = $3.375 billion 11 States
STATE
Florida
MAX. AWARD
$700,000,000
PHASE 1 RANK
4
Georgia$400,000,0003
Illinois
So. Carolina
$400,000,000
$175,000,000
5
6
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Kentucky
$400,000,000
$75,000,000
$175,000,000
7
8
9
Ohio$400,000,00010
Louisiana$175,000,00011
No. Carolina
$400,000,00012
DC$75,000,00016


Scenario #2 (Florida & New York)
TOTAL = $3.425 billion 9 States

STATE
Florida
MAX. AWARD
$700,000,000
PHASE 1 RANK
4
New York
Georgia
$700,000,000
$400,000,000
15
3
Illinois
So. Carolina
$400,000,000
$175,000,000
5
6
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Kentucky
$400,000,000
$75,000,000
$175,000,000
7
8
9
Ohio $400,000,000 10


Scenario #3 (Florida, New York & California)
TOTAL = $3.325 billion 8 States
STATE
Florida
MAX. AWARD
$700,000,000
PHASE 1 RANK
4
New York
California
Georgia
$700,000,000
$700,000,000
$400,000,000
15
27
3
Illinois
So. Carolina
$400,000,000
$175,000,000
5
6
Rhode Island
Kentucky
$75,000,000
$175,000,000
8
9
DC
$75,000,000
16




Scenario #4 (Max. Applicants w/ Florida)

TOTAL = $3.4 billion 12 States

STATE
Florida
MAX. AWARD
$700,000,000
PHASE 1 RANK
4
Georgia $400,000,000 3
Illinois $400,000,000 5
So. Carolina
$175,000,000 6
Pennsylvania $400,000,000 7
Rhode Island
$75,000,000 8
Kentucky $175,000,000 9
Ohio $400,000,000 10
Louisiana $175,000,000 11
Massachusetts $250,000,000 13
Colorado $175,000,000 14
DC $75,000,000 16


Unless Florida somehow manages to fall on its face in Phase 2, I don't think it is realistic to envision more than 12 applicants receiving funding -- and that would require one of the $400 million-eligible states (such as North Carolina or Ohio) to be eclipsed and knocked out by a smaller state ranked lower in Phase 1 (such as Colorado, Massachusetts and/or the District of Columbia) or by Maryland, which did not apply in Phase 1 [see Scenario #4]. So although the U.S. Department of Education has dangled the possibility of as many as 15 Phase 2 winners, I don't see realistically how we can get there.

Related Posts:

Race to the Top, Phase 2 Finalists

Education Week's Michele McNeil and Alyson Klein at Politics K-12 have the scoop on the Race to the Top, Phase 2 finalists. There are 19 of them:
  • Arizona
  • California
  • Colorado
  • District of Columbia
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Illinois
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • New Jersey
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
Generally, I think this is about the number of and group of applicants that most expected, including me. The two biggest surprises on the list are Arizona (although it received support from Gates in Phase 2) and Hawaii. There are no shocking omissions from the list, although some felt that the likes of Arkansas, Connecticut, Michigan, Oklahoma and Utah had outside shots at success.

Want to read all the finalists' applications to see what's so good about 'em? You can find links to all the applications here.

Winners are expected to be named by the U.S. Department of Education in late August or early September.

This Is Rich

This policy proposal from Senate Republican Leader Jon Kyl (of Arizona) with a $678 billion price tag -- yes, BILLION -- puts the hullaballo over the $800 million "edujobs" controversy into some perspective. How about we tap into THAT source of revenue by letting the tax cuts expire to save teachers' jobs and leave the currently authorized education reform programs alone?

From Huffington Post ("Jon Kyl: Extend Bush Tax Cuts for Wealthy Even If They Add To Deficit"):
Top Senate Republican Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) insisted on Sunday that Congress should extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans regardless of their impact on the deficit, even as he and other Republicans are blocking unemployment insurance extensions over deficit concerns.

White House aides immediately seized on the comments. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs wrote on Twitter, "Kyl says wealthy need big Bush tax cuts while middle class families are on their own to fend for themselves as a result of Bush economy."
With concerns over the massive budget deficit, rising income inequality, and an inability to fund existing programs, why again should we extend tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans that were bad policy when they were enacted? And this at the same time when Republicans are refusing to extend $30 billion of unemployment benefits for Americans hit hardest by the recession. That's rich.

The Washington Post editorial page weighed in on this issue in today's edition, too.